王荣,叶殿秀,肖潺,赵珊珊,陈鲜艳,李威

• 1:中国气象局国家气候中心

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标，对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别，并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律。【结果】结果表明：(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现，平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次，主要出现在5—9月，尤以6—7月为集中发生时段。区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日，末次结束日期为9月17日。平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站，持续时间1.3 d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d。(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2～3 a和8 a左右的变化周期，年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4～6 a和8～11 a周期变化。(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前，末次结束日期无明显变化，发生期显著变长；发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势，但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势。(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象。【结论】研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 区域性暴雨过程;气候特征;变化趋势;变化周期;三峡地区;极端降雨;降水;三峡水库

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704182);; 国家重点研发计划(2020YFA0608203)

作者(Author): 王荣,叶殿秀,肖潺,赵珊珊,陈鲜艳,李威

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.02.002

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