赵梦阳,刘斌云,李智,唐颖,王昊,宋利祥,初祁

• 1:北京工业大学城市建设学部
• 2:北京城市学院城市建设学部
• 3:珠江水利科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

为解决保险费率厘定中所依据的历史洪涝灾害情况、灾害经济损失值的基础数据资料不全及实地调研所需费用高等问题,本文通过仿真模拟的方法,建立城市管网水力模型以实现洪涝灾害的淹没场景再现,得到淹没水深、淹没面积、淹没历时等洪涝淹没情况。选用灾损曲线理论计算不同重现期下不同土地利用类型的经济损失值,用伽玛分布进行拟合得到期望损失值用以计算保险净费率,利用资本资产定价CAPM模型得到风险附加费率并结合附加费率来厘定总保险费率。选择典型洪涝灾害易发区云南省昭通市昭阳区实例来验证该方法的实用性。研究结果表明:保险费率较高的有商业、服务活动、交通运输以及居住用地,保险费率为3.76%、3.21%、3.21%、2.1%。每万元保额建议收取的保费为376元、321元、321元、210元。该方法旨在为我国城市洪涝保险制度的建立提供依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 城市洪涝保险;水力模型;经济损失计算;保险费率厘定

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(51809297)

作者(Author): 赵梦阳,刘斌云,李智,唐颖,王昊,宋利祥,初祁

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.013

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