丁建闯,钟海仁,许礼林,余洁

• 1:首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院
• 2:华北科技学院建筑工程学院
• 3:国信司南(北京)地理信息技术有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】减灾能力是减灾主体在某层面上用于防灾、抗灾、救灾全过程各方面能力共同作用所形成的总合力。为准确评价并客观反映区域减灾能力大小与不足。【方法】以北京市延庆区“第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查”基础调查数据为例，分别采用TOPSIS法、RSR法和构造的(T+R)法对该区18个乡镇的减灾能力进行定量化评估，对应得出各乡镇减灾能力C_i值、RSR_W值和(T+R)_μ值，基于实例数据评估结果与计算过程，从评估数值大小、等级排名、整体趋势等方面进行对比分析。【结果】结果显示：18个乡镇中，TOPSIS与RSR法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有4个乡镇，TOPSIS与(T+R)法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有2个乡镇，RSR与(T+R)法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有2个乡镇。同时，(T+R)法评估结果平均值为0.406、极值差为0.375、标准差为0.119,均处于TOPSIS和RSR法中间。三种模型均适用于区域减灾能力定量化评估，可根据区域评估目的和要求进行选择。总体上，RSR法信息损失最大、优劣分档最佳，受异常值干扰最小；TOPSIS法信息损失最小、优劣分档最差，受异常值干扰最大；构造的(T+R)法既克服了RSR法源数据的信息损失，又能对TOPSIS法的优劣分档进行优化，同时有效降低了异常值干扰。【结论】结果表明：将RSR法应用于减灾能力定量化评估可行，因(T+R)法在信息损失、优劣分档、抗异常值干扰等方面的优势明显，是三者中的最佳选择，且可适用于省、市、县、乡、家庭，甚至流域等其他尺度的评估。对(T+R)法的深入研究可为减灾能力定量化评估提供思路和参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 乡镇减灾能力评估;TOPSIS模型;RSR模型;(T+R)模型;信息损失;优劣分档;异常值干扰;影响因素

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 自然灾害综合风险评估与区划体系研究(21220010036);; 廊坊市科技支撑计划项目(2022011013)

作者(Author): 丁建闯,钟海仁,许礼林,余洁

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.11.005

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