吴丹,王亚华

• 1:北方工业大学经济管理学院
• 2:清华大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

依据《加快推进新时代水利现代化的指导意见》的总体思路，从水资源、水生态、水环境和水安全“四水共治”视角，对水利现代化实现过程进行再认识和评价。从资源需求保障、环境需求保障、生态需求保障、安全需求保障四个维度，构建水利现代化评价指标体系与测算方法，综合评价1980—2050年的中国水利现代化进程。从评价结果来看，中国水利现代化进程呈现S曲线变化，并且快于之前的预期。至2020年，水利现代化综合实现程度超过75%,其中资源需求保障度与安全需求保障度的实现程度超过90%,但环境需求保障度和生态需求保障度相对滞后，实现程度约为60%左右。展望2030年、2035年和2050年，水利现代化综合实现程度预计分别达到91.4%、97%、100%。测算结果表明，中国可望在2030—2035年之间基本实现水利现代化，并在2050年之前全面实现水利现代化，对社会主义现代化强国建设形成有力支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 现代化;水利发展;水资源管理;发展评价;层次分析法;预测;水环境;安全需求

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“水资源刚性约束下流域初始水权与产业结构优化适配研究”(21YJCZH176);; 北京市自然科学基金面上项目“京津冀协同发展下水资源与产业结构双向优化适配研究”(9202005);; 北方工业大学北京城市治理研究基地项目“京津冀协同发展下水资源利用与经济发展协调评价研究”(21CSZL24);北方工业大学毓优人才项目“科技创新视角下京津冀资源能耗管理绩效及其协同治理能力评价体系研究”(XN020035)

作者(Author): 吴丹,王亚华

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