张启义,姚秋玲,丁留谦,解家毕

• 1:水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心
• 2:中国水利水电科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

随着沿线社会经济的发展,南水北调中线工程的运行条件较原设计发生了一些变化,由此积聚了一定的防洪风险,比较典型的如一些左排渡槽发生了洪水漫槽入渠事件。针对左排渡槽的防洪风险问题,首先基于近年来已发生过的险情,并结合各管理处的工作经验,总结出了五类主要防洪风险事件;然后再利用故障树法分别识别了各类风险事件的风险因子,最终整理得到30个防洪风险因子。基于识别的风险因子,制订了详细的调查表,在对现状条件下所有左排渡槽的防洪风险因子进行详细调查的基础上,有针对性的提出了除险及防范措施。研究结果表明:当前引起左排渡槽防洪风险升高的风险因子主要是下游河道行洪能力不足及渡槽淤积、糙率增加造成的渡槽本身泄洪能力减小,其中,引起下游河道行洪能力不足的主要原因是阻水建筑物、河床抬升、河宽不足及河道糙率增大。

关键词(KeyWords)： 南水北调中线工程;左排渡槽;防洪风险;故障树法;风险事件;风险因子;除险措施;洪水

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405004);; 中国水科院专项(JZ0199012017)

作者(Author): 张启义,姚秋玲,丁留谦,解家毕

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.03.013

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