贺玲,陈佳川,程春歌,袁建伟,屈波,魏杨

• 1:北京物资学院经济学院
• 2:水利部发展研究中心
• 3:长江生态环保集团有限公司
• 4:中国国际工程咨询有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】系统地分析长江经济带各省洪涝灾害社会脆弱性及时空特征，对其防灾减灾提供决策依据。【方法】以长江经济带11个省作为研究对象，基于暴露度-敏感性-适应性(ESA)脆弱性评估框架构建社会脆弱性评估模型，并采用熵权法和多级模糊综合评价方法，对长江经济带洪涝的社会脆弱性和时空分布特征进行评估和分析。【结果】结果表明：(1)长江经济带洪涝社会脆弱性分布呈现出下游低，中游适中，上游高的特征。上游地区社会脆弱性指数平均值约为下游地区的4倍，中游地区的2倍。(2)2009—2019年长江经济带社会脆弱性的暴露度和适应性小幅上升、敏感性持续降低，整体上社会脆弱性表现为持续降低，经济带的灾害防御能力在逐年增强。(3)长江经济带洪涝社会脆弱性的影响因素表现出显著的空间异质性。高适应性和低敏感性是下游地区低社会脆弱性的原因；低适应性是中上游地区高脆弱度的主要原因；高暴露和高敏感性是湖南省的主要影响因素。【结论】就不同地区的致脆主导因素，提出针对性的防灾减灾措施。对于城市基础设施建设能力不足的地区，如江西省和四川省，其基础设施适应性指数对总适应性指数的贡献率分别为43%和47%,应当兴修其排水基础设施，加强防洪排涝设施的管护，增加绿化面积，建设海绵城市，提高城市韧性等。就水库数量不足导致其灾害抵御能力较弱的地区如贵州省，应当加快病险水利工程加固提标，开展小型水库系统治理评估等。

关键词(KeyWords)： 社会脆弱性;时空变化;熵权法;多级模糊综合评价;长江经济带;气候变化;人类活动;洪涝灾害

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(72348003);国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目(72261147472);; 北京物资学院校级青年基金(2023XJQN01)

作者(Author): 贺玲,陈佳川,程春歌,袁建伟,屈波,魏杨

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.03.003

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