徐小婷,侯锐,吕思可

• 1:南京水科院瑞迪科技集团有限公司
• 2:南京水利科学研究院
• 3:河海大学水文水资源学院

摘要(Abstract)：

雄安新区地处华北平原中部，属于我国水资源相对匮乏的地区之一，研究其干旱特征演变形势，对雄安新区经济社会发展及水资源管理具有重要意义。利用1975—2018年31个气象站点的长系列气象监测数据和CanESM2气候模式数据，计算不同时间尺度下标准化降水指数SPI,并采用多种类型Copula函数，构建基于干旱特征表征的二维联合概率分布模型，分析雄安新区所在水资源二级区在气候变化影响下的干旱演变规律及风险状况。在月尺度和季节尺度上，水资源二级区轻旱、中旱和重旱发生频率的空间分布情况有所转移，整体变化不大，但特旱发生频率则存在显著的增加；在年尺度上中旱频率有所减小，而轻旱、重旱和特旱的发生频率增加显著，同时在空间分布特征有明显转移；Clayton Copula函数对雄安新区所处区域干旱历时和干旱程度的拟合效果最佳，二者的单变量重现期均位于联合重现期与同现重现期之间，随着重现期的增大至100 a时，干旱历时达到6.9个月，干旱程度达到7.4,但二者的同现重现期将超过200 a。结果表明：未来轻旱、重旱和特旱均在雄安新区及周边出现明显聚集现象，也意味着未来雄安新区的水资源承载安全风险有升高的可能性，但长历时高烈度的干旱事件出现概率相对较小。

关键词(KeyWords)： 雄安新区;气候变化;干旱;联合概率分布

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 徐小婷,侯锐,吕思可

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.S1.034

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