李锐,刘荣华,田济扬,焦文海,张晓蕾,陈淑芬,孙朝兴

• 1:山东建筑大学市政与环境工程学院
• 2:中国水利水电科学研究院
• 3:水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心
• 4:济南市市政工程设计研究院有限责任公司

摘要(Abstract)：

针对我国已建山洪灾害监测预警平台主要面向乡村防汛责任人,却难以覆盖流动人员等问题,结合移动互联网和分布式水文模型、云计算、大数据等技术,搭建了山洪灾害预警信息靶向服务系统。该系统采用"云平台+APP"的模式构建,集成应用了预报预警、电子围栏、边缘计算及信息推送等技术,由云平台进行实时信息统一接收、处理和山洪预警分析。基于用户实时位置和山洪风险范围生成预警信息,然后利用APP实现预警信息的定向发布,可覆盖风险区内所有人员,特别是为非特定的流动人员预警提供了可行途径,实现了预警信息靶向服务和全覆盖。为测试系统的可用性和有效性,以河南西峡县蛇尾河流域为例,采用14场实测洪水数据进行模型检验。结果显示,率定期洪峰流量误差均值为9.1%,验证期洪峰流量误差均值为8.0%,预报预警效果良好。目前,该流域已有超过130人注册并使用了APP,证明系统具有广阔的应用前景。

关键词(KeyWords)： 山洪预警;云平台;APP;靶向服务;洪水;降雨;山洪灾害;洪水预报

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510605,2017YFB0203104)

作者(Author): 李锐,刘荣华,田济扬,焦文海,张晓蕾,陈淑芬,孙朝兴

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.07.004

参考文献(References)：

• [1] LI Haichen,ZHANG Shunfu,LI Qing,et al.Research on flash flood disaster warning index:Case study of Luoning County[J].IOP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2019,218(1):012075.DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/218/1/012075.
• [2] 任洪玉，邹翔，张平仓.我国山洪灾害成因分析[J].中国水利，2007(14):18-20.REN Hongyu,ZOU Xiang,ZHANG Pingcang.An elementary study on causing-factors of Chinese mountain torrents disaster[J].China Water Resources,2007(14):18-20.
• [3] 熊朕，田宏岭.我国山洪灾害监测现状与发展趋势[J].灾害学，2019,34(3):140-145.XIONG Zhen,TIAN Hongling.A review and trend:flash flood disaster monitoring in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2019,34(3):140-145.
• [4] 程卫帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展，2013,24(6):901-908.CHENG Weishuai.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods [J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):901-908.
• [5] 孙厚才，沙耘，黄志鹏.山洪灾害研究现状综述[J].长江科学院院报，2004(6):77-80.SUN Houcai,SHA Yun,HUANG Zhipeng.Review of present situation in studying mountain torrent disaster [J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2004(6):77-80.
• [6] 万新宇，王光谦.近60年中国典型洪水灾害与防洪减灾对策[J].人民黄河，2011,33(8):1-4.WAN Xinyu,WANG Guangqian.Typical flood disasters during last sixty years and strategies of flood control and disaster mitigation in China[J].Yellow River,2011,33(8):1-4.
• [7] 孙东亚，张红萍.欧美山洪灾害防治研究进展及实践[J].中国水利，2012(23):16-17.SUN Dongya,ZHANG Hongping.Research progress and practice of mountain flood disaster prevention in Europe and America[J].China Water Resources,2012(23):16-17.
• [8] 刘荣华，周燕怡，郭良，等.美国山洪灾害预警研究进展[J].中国防汛抗旱，2020,30(Z1):141-148.LIU Ronghua,ZHOU Yanyi,GUO Liang,et al.Research progress on early warning of flash flood disasters in the United States[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2020,30(Z1):141-148.
• [9] 刘志雨.山洪预警预报技术研究与应用[J].中国防汛抗旱，2012,22(2):41-45.LIU Zhiyu.Research and application of flash flood warning and forecasting technology [J].China Flood & Drought Management,2012,22(02):41-45.
• [10] 刘志雨.欧洲洪水感知系统及其应用启示[J].中国水利，2013(17):66-68.LIU Zhiyu.Revelation on European flood awareness system and its application [J].China Water Resources,2013(17):66-68.
• [11] 何秉顺，常凊睿，凌永玉.日本中小河流山洪预报研究[J].中国防汛抗旱，2016,26(6):51-56.HE Bingshun,CHANG Qingrui,LING Yongyu.Research on forecast of mountain floods of small and medium rivers in Japan[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2016,26(06):51-56.
• [12] 张李荪.基于WebGIS的山洪灾害预警信息系统设计[J].人民长江，2009,40(17):84-85.ZHANG Lisun.WebGIS-based mountain torrent disaster warning information system design[J].Yangtze River,2009,40(17):84-85.
• [13] 裘峰，刘子豪，任宇程，等.贵州省基于云计算的山洪灾害监测预警管理系统设计及应用[J].中国防汛抗旱，2019,29(3):12-15.QIU Feng,LIU Zihao,REN Yucheng,et al.Design and application of flash flood monitoring and early warning management system based on cloud computing in Guizhou Province[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2019,29(3):12-15.
• [14] 刘志雨，杨大文，胡健伟.基于动态临界雨量的中小河流山洪预警方法及其应用[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(3):317-321.LIU Zhiyu,YANG Dawen,HU Jianwei.Dynamic critical rainfall-based torrential flood early warning for medium-small rivers [J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2010,46(3):317-321.
• [15] 胡维忠，叶秋萍，陈桂亚，等.构建科学的山洪灾害监测预警系统[J].中国水利，2007(14):34-37.HU Weizhong,YE Qiuping,CHEN Guiya,et al.Establishing a scientific mountain flood monitoring and warning system[J].China Water Resources,2007(14):34-37.
• [16] 涂勇，吴泽斌，何秉顺.2011—2019年全国山洪灾害事件特征分析[J].中国防汛抗旱，2020,30(9/10):22-25.TU Yong,WU Zebin,HE Bingshun.Analysis on the characteristics of flash flood disasters in China from 2011 to 2019[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2020,30(9/10):22-25.
• [17] WANG Yali,LIU Ronghua,LIANG Guo,et al.Forecasting and providing warnings of flash floods for ungauged mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J].Water,2017,9(10):776.doi:10.3390/w9100776.
• [18] 芮孝芳，宫兴龙，张超，等.流域产流分析及计算[J].水力发电学报，2009,28(6):146-150.RUI Xiaofang,GONG Xinglong,ZHANG CHAO et al.Formation and calculation of watershed runoff yield[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(6):146-150.
• [19] 王海霞，张弛，董四辉.马斯京根模型变参数洪水演算[J].水电能源科学，2012,30(7):47-49.WANG Haixia,ZHANG Chi,DONG Sihui.Variation parameters of Muskingum Model for flood routing.[J].Water Resources and Power,2012,30(7):47-49.
• [20] 王劲峰，武继磊，孙英君，等.空间信息分析技术[J].地理研究，2005(3):464-472.WANG Jinfeng,WU Jilei,SUN Yingjun,et al.Techniques of spatial data analysis[J].Geographical Research,2005(3):464-472.
• [21] MUMINOV A,NA D,LEE C,et al.Modern virtual fencing application:monitoring and controlling behavior of goats using GPS collars and warning signals[J].Sensors,2019,19(7):1598.doi:10.3390/s19071598.
• [22] CHOPDE N R,NICHAT M.Landmark based shortest path detection by using A* and Haversine formula[J].International Journal of Innovative Research in Computer and Communication Engineering,2013,1(2):298-302.
• [23] SHI Weisong,CAO Jie,ZHANG Quan,et al.Edge computing:Vision and challenges[J].IEEE Internet of Things Journal,2016,3(5):637-646.
• [24] 赵明.边缘计算技术及应用综述[J].计算机科学，2020,47(S1):268-272.ZHAO Ming.Survey on technology and application of edge computing[J].Computer Science,2020,47(S1):268-272.
• [25] 刘迎清.国内信息推送研究综述[J].长沙大学学报，2006(5):82-86.LIU Yingqing.Summary of the information push research in China[J].Journal of Changsha University,2006(5):82-86.
• [26] 张月天，邬伟，曾欣.当前互联网几种信息推送技术及其评析[J].云南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,3(2):116-120.ZHANG Yuetian,WU Wei,ZENG Xin.Analysis of the information push technology[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science),2009,3(2):116-120.