洪柳天骄,陈伏龙,王统霞,龙爱华,孙怀卫

• 1:石河子大学水利建筑工程学院
• 2:寒旱区生态水利工程兵团重点实验室
• 3:中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室
• 4:华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】新疆是我国典型的干旱区，境内干旱灾害频发，缓解其严峻的干旱形势迫在眉睫；为揭示新疆气象干旱特征并探究其干旱重现期，【方法】采用1960—2021年新疆60个气象站点逐日气象数据，选取气象干旱综合指数(MCI)作为干旱评价指标进行干旱等级的划分，基于游程理论识别干旱过程并提取3个典型干旱特征变量，分析新疆近62年来发生干旱过程的时间变化趋势和各等级干旱日数的空间分布特征，通过优选得出的Copula函数构建干旱特征变量的二维、三维联合分布函数模型，推求干旱重现期。【结果】结果表明：在年际变化上新疆干旱过程数量呈现减少趋势，1960—2021年北疆发生干旱过程总数较南疆高，在春季新疆易发生干旱过程，且易发生春夏连旱；随着干旱等级的增加，干旱日数显著减少，旱情呈现出北疆重于南疆的空间分布特征；广义极值分布函数能较好的拟合干旱强度和干旱历时，威布尔分布函数拟合干旱峰值的效果最佳，Gumbel Copula函数拟合干旱强度-历时的二维联合分布时效果较好，Clayton Copula函数在干旱历时-峰值和强度-峰值的二维联合分布及三维联合分布中拟合效果最佳。【结论】Copula函数能较好地描述新疆多维干旱特征变量的联合分布，新疆发生长历时、高强度的极端干旱事件的概率相对较小，发生短历时、低强度的干旱过程概率相对较大，研究成果可为干旱风险评估提供技术支持。

关键词(KeyWords)： 气象干旱综合指数(MCI);干旱过程识别;干旱特征变量;Copula函数;干旱重现期;新疆;干旱;气候变化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52169005);; 南疆重点产业支撑计划项目(2022DB024)

作者(Author): 洪柳天骄,陈伏龙,王统霞,龙爱华,孙怀卫

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.08.001

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