晋良海,杨应柳

• 1:三峡大学水利与环境学院
• 2:三峡大学湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室
• 3:湖北安环科技有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】为提高水旱灾害年际时间序列数据分析的可视化程度，采用拓扑网络可视化分析的新范式，挖掘水旱灾害年际时间序列的非线性分形动力学特征，为水旱灾害防御规划设计等提供多维度信息。【方法】首先，借助可视图方法，根据时间序列数值柱状图顶点的可视关系，建立水旱灾害时间序列的拓扑网络，厘清分形时间序列与拓扑网络度分布的映射关系；其次，利用拓扑网络理论分析点强度、介数中心性、平均路径长度、聚类系数等参数，揭示水旱灾害年际时间序列的拓扑分形动力特征；最后，以我国1955—2018年的水旱灾害数据为例，对比分析拓扑网络参数与采用R/S分析方法计算的Hurst指数。【结果】结果表明，水旱灾害受灾、成灾面积时间序列分布均具有分形特性、小世界特性和无标度网络特性，介数中心性大的节点均对应年受灾、成灾面积大，【结论】以上两种方法分析结果相近，而拓扑网络可视化分析方法可为水旱灾害年际时间序列分析提供更多维度信息。

关键词(KeyWords)： 水旱灾害;时间序列;拓扑网络;分形动力

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(52179136,51878385);; 教育部人文社科规划基金项目(21YJA630038)

作者(Author): 晋良海,杨应柳

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.02.001

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