张士俊,王宏宇,唐莉

• 1:山西水利职业技术学院
• 2:湖北省交通规划设计院股份有限公司
• 3:太原理工大学

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】研究极端气温对黄河流域陕西段地质灾害的影响，提出有效的防灾减灾策略，具有重要的现实意义。【方法】依据1975—2020年黄河流域陕西段17个气象站的日气温资料，选择ETCCDMI指标体系筛选极端气候事件，计算出20个极端气候指数，叠加黄河流域陕西段5 521个地质灾害点数据，识别研究区地质灾害热点区及核密度，观察不同MinPts参数值下地质灾害点的聚类特征，分析研究区极端气温的空间变异，建立黄河流域陕西段地质灾害密度与极端气温的空间数据库，基于单因素相关系数及多因素灰色关联度，探讨极端气候与地质灾害的相关关系。【结果】结果显示：(1)研究区显著性水平达到90%的热点区域约0.71万km~2,核密度区间介于322.68～2 050.72,呈现聚集特征空间分布不均匀，主要分布在铜川市及西安—渭南中部；(2)小、中、大MinPts值下的聚集模式分别反映了微环境、区域性和更大空间尺度的影响；(3)研究区暖相关指数整体呈显著上升趋势，而冷相关指数呈显著下降趋势，研究区内总体气温显著升高；(4)北部和南部极端气温指标变化存在显著差异，北部霜冻天数多于南部，而南部生长季较长，研究区域内气候变化趋势与全球变暖的整体趋势一致，冷天数减少，暖天数和极端高温天数显著增加；(5)地质灾害核密度与多个极端气温指标呈正相关，其中TR10(R~2=0.314)相关性最强，指标如TX90P(R~2=0.310)则表现出负相关性；(6)核密度与极端气温指标的灰色关联系数均在0.74以上，尤其是TN90P、TX90P、TNn与TNx的关联系数达到显著性水平。【结论】黄河流域陕西段气候变化中不同气温指标对地质灾害有显著的促进或抑制作用，需综合考虑以应对地质灾害风险。

关键词(KeyWords)： 极端气候;地质灾害;多因素;灰色关联;黄河流域;气候变化;降雨;滑坡

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42307261);; 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ211945)

作者(Author): 张士俊,王宏宇,唐莉

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.12.005

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