曲永驭,康健,林希晨,倪红珍,蒋云钟,陈根发

• 1:中国水利水电科学研究院
• 2:水利部发展研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

中国西北地区干旱缺水且农业水价远低于供水成本，不利于当地农业节水与农业经济的可持续发展。为探讨中国西北地区农业水价改革的影响，基于可计算并加以改进的一般均衡(CGE)模型，根据区域内农业作物的经济属性和行业的用水特征，加入了农业细分模块和水源替代模块，并以典型干旱且农业用水量及用水比例较高的中国甘肃省武威市为例，设置了3种水价改革情景，定量研究了不同水价政策下区域经济效应、社会效益、不同水源用水量和水价弹性的变化。结果表明，通过提高水价能够有效促进农业节水，且对区域经济的影响较小。以情景S01(2021年收回供水成本并开始实现盈利)为例，相较于基准情景，2030年农业地表水用量预计降低1.51%,地下水用量预计降低2.89%,区域GDP预计降低0.075%,CPI预计提高0.10%。水价弹性的绝对值小于0.04。并给出情景S02即2025年收回农业供水成本并逐渐开始盈利为最佳的水价改革方案。本研究对中国西北地区制定合理的水价政策具有借鉴意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 农业水价;CGE模型;水源替代;细分农业;水价弹性;经济影响

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(59035679);; 2002年高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目(20020183061)

作者(Author): 曲永驭,康健,林希晨,倪红珍,蒋云钟,陈根发

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.12.017

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