张松,何小聪,梁志明

• 1:中国长江三峡集团有限公司
• 2:长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司
• 3:中国长江电力股份有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】受来水预报不确定性及发电调度、生态调度试验、库岸稳定要求等影响，三峡水库的集中消落期调度方式存在水位精准调控困难、水资源利用效率有优化空间等问题。为了在有效控制防洪风险的同时提高三峡水库汛前水位集中消落期调度灵活性和综合效益，提出了延长三峡水库汛前集中消落期的优化调度方式。【方法】在分析三峡水库消落期水文情势变化情况的基础上，通过耦合延长三峡水库汛前集中消落、三峡水库调洪计算、下游河道洪水演进模型，对比分析了遭遇不同类型洪水时不同汛前水位集中消落方案的防洪影响和效益，以不影响防洪安全、有效提高综合效益为原则优选汛前水位集中消落方式。【结果】结果显示，延长三峡水库集中消落期3～5 d,遭遇1954年、1998年等长江流域实际大洪水时，三峡水库均可在转入防洪调度时将水位预泄至145 m,且预泄过程中，不增加下游沙市、城陵矶等主要水文站超警戒水位的天数，不抬高洪峰时沙市、城陵矶等主要水文站水位。【结论】结果表明：在防洪风险可控的前提下，6月中下旬在下游河道水位较低时，适当延长三峡水库汛前水位集中消落至145 m的时间，可以较好地统筹协调汛前防洪和供水需求，并有效衔接水库汛期运行水位动态控制，有利于提高集中消落期调度的灵活性和水资源利用效率，为三峡水库实际调度提供更好的条件。

关键词(KeyWords)： 三峡水库;汛前集中消落;调度方式优化;长江流域;洪水;优化调度;多目标;洪水演进模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200302);; 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(799238)

作者(Author): 张松,何小聪,梁志明

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.003

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 李安强，张建云，仲志余，等.长江流域上游控制性水库群联合防洪调度研究[J].水利学报，2013,44(1):59-66.LI Anqiang,ZHANG Jianyun,ZHONG Zhiyu,et al.Study on joint flood control operation of controlled reservoir groups in upper reaches of Yangtze River Basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,44(1):59-66.
• [2] 马昊然，张海荣，李晓阳，等.基于 VIC 模型的三峡库区流域小时尺度实时洪水预报[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(2):309-318.MA H R,ZHANG H R,LI X Y,et al.Hourly scale real-time flood forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir basin based on theVIC model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(2):309-318.
• [3] 鲍正风，李冉，郭乐.长江三峡水库消落期供水需求调度分析及对策[J].水电与新能源，2014(8):68-71.BAO Zhengfeng,LI Ran,GUO Le.Analysis and countermeasures of water supply demand dispatching in the Three Gorges Reservoir of Yangtze River[J].Hydropower and New Energy,2014(8):68-71.
• [4] LIU Y,JI C,WANG Y,et al.Quantifying streamflow predictive uncertainty for the optimization of short-term cascade hydropower stations operations[J].Journal of Hydrology,2022,605:127376.
• [5] REN M,ZHANG Q,YANG Y,et al.Research and application of reservoir flood control optimal operation based on improved genetic algorithm[J].Water,2022,14:1272.
• [6] 王浩，王旭，雷晓辉，等.梯级水库群联合调度关键技术发展历程与展望[J].水利学报，2019,50(1):25-37.WANG Hao,WANG Xu,LEI Xiaohui,et al.Development history and prospect of key technology of cascade reservoir group joint operation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2019,50(1):25-37.
• [7] 阮利民.发挥长江经济带关键骨干作用促进三峡工程安全运行和库区高质量发展[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(2):22-26.RUAN Limin.Giving full play to the key role of the Three Gorges Project and the Three Gorges Reservoir Area while ensuring the project’s safe operation and supporting the area’s high-quality development[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(2):22-26.
• [8] UYSAL G,SCHWANENBERG D,ALVARADO M R,et al.Short term optimal operation of water supply reservoir under flood control stress using model predictive control [J].Water Resource Management.2018,32:583-597.
• [9] MA Y,ZHONG P A,XU B,et al.Spark-based parallel dynamic programming and particle swarm optimization via cloud computing for a large-scale reservoir system[J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,598:126444.
• [10] ZENG X,HU T,CAI X,et al.Improved dynamic programming for parallel reservoir system operation optimization [J].Advances in Water Resources,2019,131,103373.
• [11] 鲍正风，胡晓勇.三峡水库汛前消落期优化调度方式研究[J].水力发电，2009,35(12):64-66.BAO Zhengfeng,HU Xxiaoyong.Study on optimal operation mode of Three Gorges reservoir during pre-flood period[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,35(12):64-66.
• [12] 朱锦干，周建中，张勇传.金沙江下游梯级汛前联合消落控制方式研究[J].水电能源科学，2020,38(7):61-64.ZHU Jingan,ZHOU Jianzhong,ZHANG Yongchuan.Research on control method of cascade joint fading before flood in lower Jinshajiang River[J].Water Resources and Power,2020,38(7):61-64.
• [13] 刘永琦，侯贵兵，高唯珊，等.龙滩水电站汛前消落水位优化及规律研究[J].人民珠江，2023,44(10):87-94.LIU Yongqi,HOU Guibing,GAO Weishan,et al.Study on optimization and regularity of pre-flood water level of Longtan Hydropower Station[J].Pearl River,2023,44(10):87-94.
• [14] 周颖，周研来，郭生练，等.水库群消落期多目标智能优化调度研究[J].水力发电学报，2023,42(9):70-78.ZHOU Ying,ZHOU Yanlai,GUO Shenglian,et al.Research on multi-objective intelligent optimal operation of reservoir group during water levelling period[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2023,42(9):70-78.
• [15] 何中政，辛秀钰，魏博文，等.基于 SPADE 算法的梯级水库群联合防洪优化调度[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(4):651-660.HE Z Z,XIN Y X,WEI B W,et al.Optimal operation of joint flood control for cascade reservoirs based on SPADE algorithm[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(4):651-660.
• [16] 荆柱，朱利明，巴欢欢，等.亭子口水利枢纽汛期运行水位动态控制策略研究[J].人民长江，2022,53(8):15-22.JING Zhu,ZHU Liming,BA Huanhuan,et al.Study on dynamic control strategy of operating water level in Tingzikou Hydraulic Project during flood season [J].Yangtze River,2022,53(8):15-22.
• [17] 李肖男，傅巧萍，张松，等.三峡水库汛期运行水位运用方式研究[J].人民长江，2022,53(2):21-26.LI Xiaonan,FU Qiaoping,ZHANG Song,et al.Study on operation mode of water level of Three Gorges Reservoir in flood season[J].Yangtze River,2022,53(2):21-26.
• [18] SCHARDONG A,SIMONOVIC S P.Coupled self-adaptive multi-objective differential evolution and network flow algorithm approach for optimal reservoir operation[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management,2015,141(10):04015015.
• [19] 钟加星，董增川，姚弘祎，等.梯级水库群多目标优化调度规则研究：以溪洛渡-向家坝为例[J].水力发电学报，2021,40(9):46-54.ZHONG J X,DONG Z C,YAO H Y,et al.Multi objective operation rules for cascade reservoirs:Case study of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade [J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2021,40(9):46-54.
• [20] LIU X,LI M,CHEN J,et al.Natural and reservoir-induced channel changes in the Yangtze River Tidal Reach[J].Journal of Hydrology,2022,605,127398.
• [21] 郭生练，刘攀，王俊，等.再论水库汛期水位动态控制的必要性和可行性[J].水利学报，2023,54(1):1-12.GUO shenglian,LIU pan,WANG Jun,et al.The necessity and feasibility of dynamic control of reservoir water level in flood season[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2023,54(1):1-12.
• [22] 巴欢欢，郭生练，钟逸轩，等.考虑降水预报的三峡入库洪水集合概率预报方法比较[J].水科学进展，2019,30(2):186-197.BA Huanhuan,GUO Shenglian,ZHONG Yixuan,et al.Comparative study on probabilistic ensemble flood forecasting considering precipitation forecasts for the Three Gorges Reservoir [J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(2):186-197.
• [23] 李博文，刘晓阳，赵佳琪，等.三峡水库已有洪水预报信息的不确定性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(1):23-31.LI B W,LIU X Y,ZHAO J Q,etal.Uncertainty analysis of existing flood forecast information in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(1):23-31.
• [24] LETA M K,DEMISSIE T A,TR?NCKNER J.Optimal operation of Nashe hydropower reservoir under land use land cover change in Blue Nile River Basin [J].Water,2022,14:1606.
• [25] 王宗志，谈丽婷，耿敏，等.考虑调水和供水规则的水库优化调度[J].水资源保护，2023,39(1):15-21.WANG Zongzhi,TAN Liting,GENG Min,et al.Optimization of reservoir operation considering water transfer and water supply rules [J].Water Resources Protection,2023,39(1):15-21.
• [26] 张原锋，王平，张凯文.黄河水沙调控技术及应用实践综述[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(2):6-12,94.ZHANG Yuanfeng,WANG Ping,ZHANG Kaiwen.Review on water-sediment regulation technology and practice[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(2):6-12,94.
• [27] HE Z,ZHOU J,XIE M,et al.Study on guaranteed output constraints in the long term joint optimal scheduling for the hydropower station group [J].Energy,2019,185:1210-1224.
• [28] LIU Y,JI C,WANG Y,et al.Consideration of streamflow forecast uncertainty in the development of short-term hydropower station optimal operation schemes:a novel approach based on mean-variance theory[J].Journal of Cleaner Production.2021,304:126929.
• [29] WANG K,WANG Z,LIU K,et al.Assessing the floodwater utilization potential in a reservoir-controlled watershed:a novel method considering engineering regulations and an empirical case from China[J].Ecological Informatics,2022,68:101581.
• [30] LU Q,ZHONG P A,XU B,et al.Risk analysis of reservoir floodwater utilization coupling meteorological and hydrological uncertainties[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2020,34:1507-1521.
• [31] LIU M Y,HUANG Y C,LI Z J,et al.The applicability of LSTM-KNN model for real-time food forecasting in diferent climate zones in China[J].Water,2020,12(2):440.
• [32] 陈瑜彬，张涛，童冰星，等.江-湖-蓄滞洪区聚合调洪演算模型研究与应用[J].人民长江，2024,55(9):60-65.CHEN Y B,ZHANG T,TONG B X,et,al.Research and application of integrated flood control model in river-lake-flood storage area [J].People of the Yangtze River,2024,55(9):60-65.