唐莉,杨冰冰,魏希,刘海明,闫中月,郁阳刚

• 1:南昌工程学院工商管理学院
• 2:南昌工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】为了研究气候变化对江西省主汛期降雨极值分布的影响，【方法】以江西省1960—2017年的逐日降雨资料为基础，采用多种检验方法检测突变点，并对突变点的显著性进行检验，使用Fisher最优分割法对气候突变前后的汛期进行分期及确定主汛期时间域，并对气候突变前后主汛期降雨极值分布与设计降雨进行探讨。【结果】结果表明：(1)1960—2017年江西省降雨量突变年为1991年。(2)气候突变后最大一日降雨量、暴雨天数及大雨天数普遍较气候突变年前大，尤其在广昌地区最大一日降雨量显著增加，增幅可达到228 mm,广昌-樟树-南昌-玉山线以西区域内暴雨天数显著增加，波阳-南昌-修水线以北所在区域内大雨天数显著增加，增幅都可达到17 d。(3)气候突变前后韦布尔分布对降雨极值拟合最优，概率点距相关系数与和确定系数分别达到了0.994 8与0.988 9,且韦布尔分布得到的降雨极值大于P-Ⅲ分布，气候突变后的主汛期设计极端降雨值小于气候突变前主汛期设计极端降雨值。【结论】在对江西省主汛期降雨进行设计时，要注意对洪水的防范。

关键词(KeyWords)： 气候变化;突变检验;主汛期划分;降雨极值分布;江西省

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ211945,GJJ201930)

作者(Author): 唐莉,杨冰冰,魏希,刘海明,闫中月,郁阳刚

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.01.005

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