汪冬冬,吴福浪,陈生,沃伟峰,钱燕珍,李云

• 1:宁波市气象局宁波市气象台院士工作站
• 2:中国民用航空宁波空中交通管理站
• 3:中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
• 4:甘肃省遥感重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】为评估双偏振雷达定量降水估测(QPE)产品的区域适用性，【方法】以地面雨量站小时降水数据为基准，利用相关系数(CC)、相对偏差(RB)、均方根误差(RMSE)以及分级评分指标等方法，定量评估宁波、舟山的雷达QPE产品在2019—2022年期间6次台风(“利奇马”“米娜”“黑格比”“烟花”“灿都”“梅花”)过程的准确度。【结果】结果显示：(1)宁波雷达对“黑格比”、“烟花”、“灿都”期间降水低估严重，RB值最低达到-71.56%,而对“梅花”期间的各个评估指标表现最好。舟山雷达在6个台风期间总体以低估为主，但没有出现类似宁波雷达严重低估的现象。(2)两个雷达QPE产品在台风期间的小时降水表现很好，CC均在0.80以上，RMSE均在1.93 mm以下。(3)随着雨强的增大，两个雷达对台风雨量的估测能力逐渐下降。舟山雷达QPE容易低估4 mm/h以上的降水过程。宁波雷达QPE的水平参差较明显，先高估“利奇马”“米娜”期间4 mm/h以上降水率的降水，然后低估“黑格比”“烟花”“灿都”期间的所有降水过程，但在“梅花”期间的表现基本与实况吻合。【结论】总体上，宁波和舟山雷达基本可以估测出台风期间的雨量分布，但两个雷达QPE产品表现差异较大，宁波雷达QPE产品在台风期间稳定性表现比舟山雷达更差。业务系统的QPE算法在宁波和舟山地区可能需本地化改进。

关键词(KeyWords)： 雷达QPE;定量评估;台风降水;宁波和舟山雷达;降雨;雨强;气候变化;台风

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41875182);; 中国科学院高层次人才计划项目(E2290702);; 广西重点研发项目(2021AB40108,2021AB40137);; 宁波市公益性研究计划项目(2022S181,2023S065);; 宁波市重点研发计划暨“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023Z139);; 浙江省“尖兵领雁+X”研发攻关计划项目(2024C03256)

作者(Author): 汪冬冬,吴福浪,陈生,沃伟峰,钱燕珍,李云

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.10.004

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