刘宇,辜玉慧,刘炎鑫,马孝义

• 1:西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】定量评价流域水文变化特征并开展其归因识别研究是应对气候变化实现水资源合理开发利用的基础。【方法】以泾河流域为研究区，采用滑动t检验、小波分析等方法分析流域1951—2018年水文气象要素演变特征，并基于Budyko假设和双累积曲线定量评价气候变化和人类活动对年、季尺度下流域水文变化的贡献率。【结果】结果表明：流域降水和径流均集中在夏季和秋季，潜在蒸散发集中在春季和夏季，泥沙主要集中在夏季；径流、泥沙呈显著减少趋势，并分别在1996年、1997年发生突变；径流(泥沙)主要存在三个主周期，第一、第二和第三主周期分别为41 a、58 a和15 a(56 a、26 a和16 a)特征时间尺度；在春季和冬季流域径流变化对下垫面参数最为敏感，在年、夏季和秋季流域径流变化对降水最为敏感；人类活动对年径流、泥沙的贡献率分别为93.05%、96.48%,夏季径流、泥沙变化对年径流、泥沙变化的贡献率分别为50.60%、82.87%。【结论】近70 a,泾河流域水文变化均呈显著减小的趋势，人类活动是导致年径流、泥沙减少的主要原因，而夏季径流、泥沙变化主导了年径流、泥沙的变化。研究结果可为变化环境下干旱半干旱地区生态保护、水土流失治理与水资源管理和开发利用提供科学依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 泾河流域;水文变化;人类活动;气候变化;Budyko假设;双累积曲线;水资源

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52179048);; 国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1900600)

作者(Author): 刘宇,辜玉慧,刘炎鑫,马孝义

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.10.003

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