李雨姿,叶春,姬辰,潘若云,王延珺,黄晓荣

• 1:四川大学水利水电学院
• 2:四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室
• 3:四川省都江堰水利发展中心

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】随着都江堰灌区面积扩大与社会经济持续发展，岷江引水量逐年增加、城市供水挤占农业生态用水等问题突出。为解决以上问题，优化灌区水资源配置、切实保障粮食安全、落实水资源“四水四定”原则，开展了都江堰灌区初始水权分配的研究，建立模型，【方法】结合科学知识图谱分析说明社会对于水资源可持续利用的重要性，综合运用岷江生态下泄流量、GDP、各类用水量数据，通过社会敏感度计算可供水量，确定分配原则后利用水量分配多准则满意度模型为灌区各市分配水量，实现水量分配“两步法”。【结果】结果显示：2030年社会敏感度0.970,P=50%情况下鱼嘴可调水量98.52亿m~3。其中城镇居民生活用水，大部分地区两步法分配值与需水量相近；生态用水，两步法分配值均大于等于需水量；农业用水，眉山市两步法分配值低于需水量；工业用水，两步法分配值大于等于需水量。【结论】结果表明：利用社会敏感度推求可供水量，多准则满意度函数模型用于灌区水量分配的两步法既遵循社会发展规律与用水习惯，又尊重灌区内各城市发展差异，可为都江堰灌区水权分配提供一种思路。

关键词(KeyWords)： 初始水权;科学知识图谱;社会敏感度;多准则满意度模型;都江堰灌区;水资源;优化配置;水资源可持续利用

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“水资源承载能力量化途径的扩展研究-基于水资源资产负债表编制”(51779160);; 四川大学-达州市人民政府校市战略合作专项资金项目(2021CDDZ-12)

作者(Author): 李雨姿,叶春,姬辰,潘若云,王延珺,黄晓荣

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.12.006

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