郑金丽,严子奇,周祖昊,王钦钊,刘佳嘉

• 1:中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循化模拟与调控国家重点实验室
• 2:江西省水文局

摘要(Abstract)：

干旱指数适用性问题是当前干旱研究中的热点问题。本文基于标准化降水指数(SPI),标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和降水Z指数(CZI)等传统标准化干旱指数,以线性组合方法构建综合气象干旱指数(linear combination synthesis drought index,LSDI),提出混淆矩阵评价方法对所有气象干旱指数的适用性进行比选分析,并在鄱阳湖流域加以应用。研究表明:(1)LSDI指数与标准化干旱指数的准确率和精度的季节性均值近似相等,但LSDI指数召回率和综合评价指标F1-Score的季节性均值更高。LSDI指数能够像标准化干旱指数一样很好地捕捉到干旱事件,同时具备三个标准化干旱指数表征干旱的优势,对干旱事件识别的效果更好。(2)鄱阳湖流域干旱强度未来趋势:夏季和冬季表现为下降趋势,干旱情况有所缓解,春秋季表现为上升趋势,干旱情况有所加重。(3)鄱阳湖流域夏季和秋季干旱发生频率高,频率范围在30%～40%。干旱发生频率呈现赣南较低,赣北较高的空间分布形式。(4)鄱阳湖流域易发生全域性和局域性干旱,夏季和秋季干旱发生范围存在不显著上升趋势;春季和冬季干旱发生范围存在不显著下降趋势。

关键词(KeyWords)： 线性组合综合干旱指数(LSDI);标准化干旱指数;混淆矩阵;干旱特征;鄱阳湖流域

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402405);; 江西省水利科技项目(202022ZDKT03,KT201501,KT201508);; 国家自然科学基金(51779270);; 水利前期计划项目“全国江河湖库旱限水位(流量)确定试点”(2019-000011-76-01-000983)

作者(Author): 郑金丽,严子奇,周祖昊,王钦钊,刘佳嘉

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.08.009

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