龙岩,曲佳,左向阳,李韫昱,刘子维,陆寅飞

• 1:河北工程大学水利水电学院
• 2:河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室
• 3:北京工业大学信息学部
• 4:中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】全球极端气候事件频发、城市化进程加快，致使城市内涝问题日益严峻，城市管网排水压力显著增大，及时判断管网运行状况显得尤为重要。【方法】以广州市黄埔区文涌排涝片为研究对象，基于SWMM模型构建洪涝过程分析机理模型，研判不同降雨情景管段充满度情况；然后，基于单井、多井计算模式构建数据模型，对城市管段充满度进行预测，并选最适合的数据模型；最后，基于改进的层次分析法和综合风险指数法，对城市管网运行风险进行评价。【结果】结果表明：(1)基于多井计算模式的决策树模型精度最优，RMSE为0.077,MAE为0.030,单次工况运行时间较SWMM模型提升60万倍。(2)在敏感点聚集区社会因素对管网运行风险影响最大，所占权重为0.72;在敏感点非聚集区经济因素对管网运行风险影响最大，所占权重为0.68。【结论】基于多井计算模式的决策树模型可满足城市内涝应急响应的精度和时效性要求；城市不同区域对管网运行风险的约束因素不同，需要因地制宜提出改进措施。

关键词(KeyWords)： 机理模型;数据模型;耦合;管网运行风险;管段充满度;气候变化;城市内涝;降雨

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006503);; 河北省自然科学基金资助(E2024402142)

作者(Author): 龙岩,曲佳,左向阳,李韫昱,刘子维,陆寅飞

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.002

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