周豹,陈国平,赵俊三,尹莹,于祖国

• 1:皖西学院电子与信息工程学院
• 2:昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院
• 3:云南云金地科技有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】滇东南喀斯特地区是我国重要的生态功能区。然而，随着城镇化进程的加快，生态环境遭受了严重破坏，导致生态服务功能普遍下降。【方法】基于2000—2020年土地利用、气象、土壤、社会经济等多源数据，采用PLUS模型模拟了2035年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和经济发展情景三种情景下的土地利用变化空间格局，并结合InVEST模型评估了产水量、碳储量、土壤保持和生境质量等四种生态系统服务，在此基础上利用Spearman相关系数探究生态系统服务之间的时空权衡协同关系。【结果】(1)2000—2020年，建设用地和水域面积显著增加，分别增加了484.21 km~2、154.40 km~2;而林地、耕地、未利用地和草地面积则减少，分别下降了438.63 km~2、89.86 km~2、 99.47 km~2、10.65 km~2。2020—2035年，生态保护情景下，建设用地、水域、林地面积呈小幅扩张，草地、耕地和未利用地则呈缩减趋势；自然发展情景下，建设用地增加明显，耕地和草地则减少；经济发展情景下，建设用地大量增加，耕地、林地、草地则大量减少；(2)2000—2020年，研究区生态系统服务变化存在显著差异。产水量呈东南高西北低的空间分布，随时间“先增加后降低”;碳储量变化幅度较小，研究期间碳储量下降区域散落分布在研究区的中部、南部和北部地区；土壤保持呈现南高北低的空间分布特征，随时间变化，西部存在大面积碳储量下降，东部地区存在大面积碳储量增加；生境质量以带状集中分布在研究区的中部和南部，20 a间整体上呈现东西部大面积下降的变化趋势。至2035年，在生态保护情景下，产水量、碳储量、土壤保持和生境质量明显提升，显示出生态保护对于改善地区生态环境的重要性。自然发展和经济发展情景下，高值区域面积显著减少，表明生态系统服务功能受到较大的压力和影响。(3)2000—2020年，土壤保持-产水量的相关性最强，指数高于0.8;产水量-碳储量之间的相关性最弱，且呈下降趋势。碳储量-产水量相关系数最低，土壤保持-产水量相关性系数最高。2020—2035年，各发展情景下生态系统服务之间均呈协同关系。【结论】结果表明：滇东南喀斯特地区生态系统服务变化受土地利用结构调整影响明显，其变化趋势和权衡协同关系亦存在空间差异，可为喀斯特地貌区生态保护提供重要的技术支撑和理论参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： InVEST模型;PLUS模型;生态系统服务;权衡协同;滇东南喀斯特地区;影响因素

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(42301304,503780262);; 云南省基础研究计划项目(202201AU070112);; 昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金项目(KKZ3202021055);; 云南省哲学社会科学规划项目(PY202129)

作者(Author): 周豹,陈国平,赵俊三,尹莹,于祖国

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.11.011

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