张湲婕,宋铁燕,陈莹,陈兴伟,高路,刘梅冰,邓海军

• 1:福建师范大学地理研究所
• 2:湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地
• 3:福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】山美水库流域属于亚热带季风气候,受热带气旋、副热带高压等天气系统及复杂地形的影响,旱涝急转(DFAA)事件频发,严重威胁流域水安全。准确识别和预测全球变化下山美水库流域旱涝急转时空演变规律,对于区域防灾减灾具有重要意义。【方法】以山美水库流域为研究对象,采用以12 d为前期降水影响日数的标准化降水指数(SPI-12 d),探究研究区1980—2018年旱涝急转的时空变化特征,并结合CMIP6多模式集合平均,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下预测21世纪流域旱涝急转的时空演变规律。【结果】结果显示:(1)研究区旱转涝(DTF)和涝转旱(FTD)的频次呈先显著增加后缓慢减少趋势,DTF强度显著增加,FTD强度显著下降。DTF主要集中在1月、7月及9月至12月,FTD则集中在8月至11月。(2)DTF频次和强度的高值区位于南部;FTD频次和强度的高值区分别位于东北部和东南部。(3)未来DTF频次和强度均呈增加趋势,且在SSP5-8.5情景下增幅更大;FTD在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下频次分别呈不显著的下降和上升趋势,强度均呈下降趋势。DTF在2月和12月增加最显著,而FTD则在1月、8月和10月增加最显著。(4)未来研究区中南部发生DTF和FTD的频次和强度均呈增加趋势,发生旱涝急转的风险增加。【结论】山美水库DFAA事件的影响整体呈增加趋势,研究区中南部是高风险区;相对于FTD,DTF的风险更大。研究结果可为DFAA的监测与应对提供科学基础。

关键词(KeyWords)： 旱涝急转;气候变化;标准化降水指数;山美水库流域;水安全;时空变化;干旱

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 福建省科技厅社会发展引导性项目(2022Y0007);福建省科技厅杰出青年基金项目(2022J06018);; 国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20554)

作者(Author): 张湲婕,宋铁燕,陈莹,陈兴伟,高路,刘梅冰,邓海军

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.01.005

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