刘艳辉,董力豪,黄俊宝,肖锐铧,苏永超

• 1:中国地质环境监测院(自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心)
• 2:华北水利水电大学
• 3:福建省地质环境监测中心

摘要(Abstract)：

针对临界降水阈值模型在滑坡区域预警中应用广泛，其中最为关键的阈值曲线函数的确定尚无统一方法的问题，依托滑坡区域预警的激发雨量-有效雨量临界阈值模型，提出了一种基于随机森林(RF)和概率分级的滑坡临界降水阈值确定方法，并以福建省为例开展模型构建和实况检验。首先，假定阈值曲线函数为线性函数，引入机器学习中的随机森林算法，采用重要性指标函数，计算各输入降水特征参数对滑坡发生的贡献，计算阈值曲线斜率；然后，基于历史滑坡样本数量的概率分级，确定不同预警等级阈值曲线截距，从而确定滑坡灾害临界降水阈值线性函数。以福建省为研究区，以2010—2018年福建省滑坡灾害样本库为基础，采用文中提出方法，分区建立临界降水阈值判据。以2019年福建新发滑坡灾害主要落区(6个预警分区)为例开展实况校验。结果显示，平均79.0%、53.1%和20.8%的新发滑坡落在黄色以上、橙色以上和红色以上预警区范围内，与80%、60%、20%的黄橙红预警分级标准一致。后续需要根据新发滑坡样本累积，持续跟踪灾害发生实况进行校验，不断更新研究区临界降水阈值判据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 滑坡;预警模型;随机森林;概率分级;临界降水阈值

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(42077440,41202217);; 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505503)

作者(Author): 刘艳辉,董力豪,黄俊宝,肖锐铧,苏永超

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.10.014

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