余欣,杨汉波,吕华芳,黄飞燕

• 1:清华大学水利水电工程系
• 2:清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室
• 3:新疆塔里木河流域喀什管理局

摘要(Abstract)：

为了估计塔里木河流域实际蒸散发E_a的历史长期变化,揭示其变化原因,采用广义蒸发互补理论的非线性模型(B2015模型),并利用偏微分法推导得到了E_a的归因模型。在此基础上,分析了塔里木河流域主要绿洲1970—2017年E_a的时空变化规律,定量探究了E_a变化的原因。结果表明:(1)塔里木河流域绿洲1970—2017年平均E_a总体呈现"西多东少"的空间格局,其中叶尔羌绿洲最大,迪那绿洲最小;(2)1970—2017年,塔里木河流域绿洲平均实际蒸散发E_a总体呈现显著增加的趋势,增速为0.34 mm/a,其主要控制因子为气温T_a;(3)1970—2017年,叶尔羌、和田、迪那和塔河干流绿洲实际蒸散发E_a无显著变化趋势;其余绿洲E_a均显著增加,其中策勒绿洲E_a增速最快,车尔臣绿洲E_a增速最慢,策勒和渭干绿洲E_a增加的主要贡献来自地表净辐射R_n,喀什噶尔、阿克苏、开都-孔雀和车尔臣绿洲E_a增加主要受气温T_a控制。

关键词(KeyWords)： 实际蒸散发;广义蒸散发互补理论;塔里木河流域;绿洲;归因分析;水资源;人类活动;气候变化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51622903)

作者(Author): 余欣,杨汉波,吕华芳,黄飞燕

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2020.06.001

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