凡涛涛,孙召义,司春棣,许忠印,谷建玲

• 1:石家庄铁道大学交通运输学院
• 2:河北省交通安全与控制重点实验室
• 3:河北雄安京德高速公路有限公司
• 4:河北高速公路集团有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】研究泥石流运动特性及关键影响参数，构建泥石流灾害风险预测模型，为评估泥石流对交通基础设施灾害风险提供一定数据支撑。【方法】以陕西省西安市喂子坪村泥石流灾害为研究对象，建立基于深度积分连续介质力学理论的泥石流运动模型，选取摩擦系数和泥石流流量作为关键参数，探究泥石流流速和堆积区域泥深变化规律，并评价泥石流出沟处区域风险等级。结合多元线性回归、多项式回归和支持向量机模型，建立泥石流流量、摩擦系数与流速、泥深之间的精准预测方程。【结果】泥石流流速与流量之间存在显著的正相关，流速在不同流量条件下波动，最高流速范围为2.58～8 m·s~(-1);泥深随流量的增加而不断增大，最大泥深范围为0.5～4 m;摩擦系数与泥石流的流速和泥深均呈现负相关，最高流速和最大泥深随着摩擦系数的增大整体呈下降趋势。风险预测结果表明，泥石流风险性随流量增大显著升高，摩擦系数的增大可有效降低风险，在较低泥石流流量时效果显著，而较大泥石流流量下摩擦阻力作用效果不显著。支持向量机模型对泥石流最高流速的预测效果较好，而多项式回归模型对泥石流堆积区域最大泥深的预测效果最佳。【结论】对泥石流流量进行监控以预判泥石流流速和堆积区域泥深，对于灾前预估泥石流灾害风险等级、灾后辅助评估泥石流灾害程度具有重要支撑作用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 泥石流;运动参数;动力特性;风险评估;风险预测模型;影响因素;支持向量机模型;工程地质灾害

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFB2600605,2021YFB2600600);; 河北省交通厅科技计划项目(JD-202007)

作者(Author): 凡涛涛,孙召义,司春棣,许忠印,谷建玲

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.03.008

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