覃祖淼,亓星,李俊

• 1:中航勘察设计研究院有限公司
• 2:四川轻化工大学土木工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】滑带土剪切强度控制着滑坡的变形演化和稳定性，滑坡危险性评价应考虑其不确定性的影响。当前滑坡危险性评价普遍采用随机场来模拟滑带土剪切强度的空间变异性，并没有纳入已知采样点数据，浪费了地质勘察工作。为了更加准确地评价滑坡的危险性，【方法】在Monte Carlo模拟的框架下，给出了滑坡危险性的概率评价方法以及详细的计算流程。该评价方法依据划分地土条形式，采用条件随机场模拟技术模拟滑带土剪切强度参数的空间变异性，并在每次Monte Carlo模拟时采用Morgenstern-Price条分法来计算滑坡安全系数。【结果】滑坡实例研究结果显示，随着滑带土剪切强度的相关距离增加，条件随机场与非条件随机场计算结果相差增大；传统采用随机场滑坡危险性评价会高估滑坡的破坏概率。【结论】实例研究证明了此方法的有效性，表明条件随机场能有效减小分析中的不确定性，从而更加真实地评价滑坡的危险性，为滑坡危险性评价提供理论指导和技术参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 滑坡;可靠度;条件随机场;Monte Carlo模拟

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2030);; 四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC1033);; 桥梁无损检测与工程计算四川省高校重点实验室项目(2022QYJ03)

作者(Author): 覃祖淼,亓星,李俊

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.04.014

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