林鹏远,李宏恩,徐康,何勇军,袁力

• 1:南京水利科学研究院
• 2:水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室
• 3:河海大学水利水电学院

摘要(Abstract)：

渗漏是水库的常见病害之一，对水库大坝可能的渗漏风险路径进行预测分析，可以有效地减少风险事故的发生，保障大坝的安全运行。为有效提高水库安全管理和风险应对能力，针对风险因素识别困难、不同风险因素关联冗杂、风险评估主观性过强等问题，在充分收集中小型水库隐患排查数据的基础上，归纳出大坝风险致因指标，利用树传播推理算法及解释结构模型对各类风险因素进行了因果层次关系分析及拓扑网络划分，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的大坝渗漏风险分析模型，运用贝叶斯网络的反向推理技术计算风险事件发生的最大可能路径并验证了模型的可靠性，将所得的风险预测模型应用到某水库渗漏风险分析中，得到了最可能渗漏风险致因链。结果表明，强风化的玄武岩、不合理的设置截水槽和防渗墙、多轮钻探实验遗留的大量空洞均会对水库渗流安全造成较大影响，所得风险事故路径与工程现阶段除险加固施工情况一致，模型推算结果与工程实际情况拟合度高，验证了模型的可信性与实用性，为大坝安全风险分析提供了一条有效的途径。

关键词(KeyWords)： 贝叶斯网络;渗漏风险;风险分析;风险路径;解释结构模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y722003,Y722008,Y721004)

作者(Author): 林鹏远,李宏恩,徐康,何勇军,袁力

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.11.011

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