丁启,杨汉波,卢韦伟,杨媛

• 1:中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院
• 2:清华大学
• 3:南京水利科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

在水利水电工程的规划设计中，设计洪水的精度影响着工程的安全性和经济性。区域洪水频率分析能够提高缺资料地区的设计洪水的代表性，为工程建设提供更可靠的数据支持。基于长江上游支流流域35个水文站60 a以上的年最大洪峰流量序列，采用模糊聚类的方法进行水文相似区识别，并选取P-Ⅲ型曲线拟合洪水频率分布曲线，推求长江上游支流的区域洪水频率分布曲线和设计洪水。结果表明，将35个水文站点分为3个区域时满足均匀性检验和一致性检验，分区结果较为合理，分别是雅砻江和大渡河区域、岷江和嘉陵江的中上游区域以及岷江和嘉陵江的中下游区域。以此估计各站点的设计洪水，在0.1%、1%、5%、10%概率下与单站点拟合得到的相对误差平均值分别为12.63%、9.23%、5.76%和3.97%,表明该方法能够用于缺资料地区设计洪水的推求。

关键词(KeyWords)： 区域洪水;频率分析;模糊聚类;水文相似性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): “十四五”国家重点研发项目(2021YFC3000202);; 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目资助(202003098);; 国家自然科学基金项目(U2040212);; 水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题(2021-KY-04)

作者(Author): 丁启,杨汉波,卢韦伟,杨媛

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.11.005

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