徐慧,江善虎,任立良,王孟浩,崔豪,王元疆,杨晶晶

• 1:河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室
• 2:河海大学水文水资源学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】在气候变化背景下，全球多区域复合高温干旱事件频率与强度呈现增加趋势。系统揭示赣江流域复合高温干旱事件的时空演变特征，为灾害风险防范提供参考。【方法】采用1961—2021年的日最高温度和表层土壤含水量数据，评估赣江流域热浪、农业干旱和复合高温干旱事件的时空变化趋势，对比分析复合高温干旱事件与单独极端事件的特征差异。【结果】结果表明：赣江流域农业干旱事件频次呈下降趋势(-0.027场/10 a),热浪事件及复合高温干旱事件的频次呈上升趋势(0.084场/10 a、0.013场/10 a)。与1961—2000年相比，2001—2021年赣江流域农业干旱的发生频率在北部大部分区域有所下降，南部地区大部分区域有所增加；热浪事件的发生频率在全流域均呈增加趋势；复合高温干旱的发生频率在东北部有所下降，南部显著上升。与单独热浪事件和单独农业干旱事件相比，复合高温干旱下的热浪事件历时和烈度分别增加16.87%和26.25%,农业干旱事件历时和烈度分别增加10.65%和26.86%。【结论】赣江流域南部地区复合高温干旱事件发生频率显著增加；相比于单独的极端事件，复合高温干旱事件的危险性有所增强，未来应加强该区域的复合高温干旱风险防范能力。

关键词(KeyWords)： 农业干旱;热浪;复合高温干旱;赣江流域;气候变化;时空变化;降水;长江流域

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203);; 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20211202)

作者(Author): 徐慧,江善虎,任立良,王孟浩,崔豪,王元疆,杨晶晶

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.04.001

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