李虎,王丽晶,杨思敏,赵飞,王加虎

• 1:河海大学水文水资源学院
• 2:北京市水科学技术研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】降雨相似性分析是一种用于比较和评估不同降雨事件之间相似性的一种方法，可用于降雨径流过程的预测。针对降雨时空分布特征，以北京市中心城区2008—2021年为数据样本，提出了一种基于多距离融合的场次降雨时空相似性比较方法。【方法】首先通过设置雨量占比阈值，进行降雨场次划分，共划分位于汛期(6—9月)降雨225场。随后提取降雨量、降雨历时、降雨强度、降雨中心范围等特征要素，并计算3个方面的降雨特征距离：降雨要素距离、降雨中心距离、降雨总量距离。同时为了更好综合特征距离，采用主成分分析方法进行距离融合计算权重，得出最终的距离，并根据计算结果进行相似度排序。【结果】通过对33号和120号两场降雨的比较，从降雨量分布图、降雨中心范围图及降雨特征要素的直观对比，展示了较高的相似度，经过计算的综合相似度为78.46%。【结论】结果表明：该方法综合考虑了降雨的强度、空间范围和降雨总量等方面的差异，能够提供准确可靠的场次降雨相似性分析结果，并为城市洪涝预警和灾害防治提供有益工具。

关键词(KeyWords)： 多距离融合;场次降雨;降雨特征;相似性分析;主成分分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 北京市科技计划项目“暴雨洪涝灾害智能感知及多源数据驱动风险预警技术研究与应用”(Z231100003823005);北京市科技计划课题“北京城市洪涝淹水实时预测预警关键技术研究与示范”(Z201100008220005)

作者(Author): 李虎,王丽晶,杨思敏,赵飞,王加虎

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.06.009

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