吕平安,周青云,先建春,韩信

• 1:天津农学院水利工程学院
• 2:中美生态农业与水环境保护国际联合研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】在全球变暖的背景下，干旱事件发生更为频繁、剧烈，研究安徽省季节干旱特征及大气环流遥相关关系，可为安徽省旱灾防治工作提供指导。【方法】以标准化降水指数(SPI)为干旱指标，采用Sen斜率估计Mann—Kendall趋势检验等方法分析安徽省各季节降水趋势和干旱时空特征，并通过交叉小波变换(XWT)和小波相干变换(WTC)探究各地区季节干旱与大气环流的相关关系。【结果】结果显示：在1960—2021年间，春季和秋季降水量减少，干旱站次比增大。夏季和冬季降水量增大，干旱站次比减少；春季和夏季干旱频率在淮北平原最高，干旱强度在大别山区最大。秋季干旱频率在皖南山区最高，干旱强度在江淮丘陵最大。冬季干旱频率在大别山区最高，干旱强度在皖南山区最大；南方涛动指数(SOI)与皖中和皖南地区春季SPI、北大西洋振荡(NAO)与皖中和皖南地区夏季SPI以及皖南地区冬季SPI、太平洋北美振荡(PNA)与皖中和皖南地区秋季SPI、北极涛动指数(AO)与皖北和皖中地区冬季SPI在不同时间尺度的共振周期上具有较好的相关关系。【结论】春季和秋季有变干趋势，夏季和冬季有变湿趋势。安徽省平原和丘陵地区干旱频率较大，山地和丘陵地区干旱强度较大；SOI、NAO、PNA、AO是安徽省各地区季节干旱的重要驱动因素。

关键词(KeyWords)： 干旱;SPI;时空特征;大气环流指数;安徽省

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51609170)

作者(Author): 吕平安,周青云,先建春,韩信

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.12.008

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