苑希民,贾帅静,田福昌,徐浩田

• 1:天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

在防汛应急管理中,由于水情的复杂性和多变性,洪水风险分析方案存在不确定性和时变性,针对变化的水雨情数据对洪水风险要素进行快速分析是降低洪灾损失的有效手段。总结可用于洪水风险快速分析的各类技术与方法,通过梳理不同建模方式和风险要素识别模式,对洪水风险快速分析技术方法的原理展开了研究。在此基础上,对比分析了各类方法的优势和局限性,并对其技术特点和适用条件进行了深入探讨。最后,对洪水风险快速分析方法的应用前景进行了展望。分析认为:常用的水面高程推算法和水动力模型法仍有重要利用价值;基于元胞自动机思想的建模方法值得进一步研究和推广应用;基于遥感与GIS技术的淹没分析为大范围洪水灾情的快速评估提供了高效的技术手段。

关键词(KeyWords)： 洪水风险分析;洪水快速计算;智能优化算法;遥感快速识别;重点防洪保护区;蓄滞洪区;洪水演进路径;二维水动力学模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405601);; 高等学校学科创新引智计划(B14012);; 科技部重点领域创新团队(2014RA4031);; 国家自然基金委创新团队(51621092)

作者(Author): 苑希民,贾帅静,田福昌,徐浩田

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.07.008

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