李翔宇,雷添杰,林智韬,姬军红,孙晖,吴清华,王嘉宝,陈东攀

• 1:中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所
• 2:北京戍光科技有限公司
• 3:北京京能建设集团有限公司
• 4:北京城建远东建设投资集团有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为研究内蒙古地区受灾人口与干旱强度、持续时间等干旱特征要素的定量关系。研究基于调查数据和综合干旱指数(CDI)获取了内蒙古地区受灾人口的样本数据。从干旱强度和持续时间等特征要素出发，分析了受灾人口与干旱强度、持续时间之间的相关性，构建了基于“干旱强度-持续时间-损失量”三维特征变量的干旱评估方法与三维模型。研究表明，受灾人口是由干旱强度、持续时间等特征要素共同决定的，受灾人口与干旱强度和持续时间存在显著相关，干旱强度和持续时间也存在着显著的交互作用，且受灾人口与干旱强度和持续时间之间的响应关系更趋向于非线性响应关系。

关键词(KeyWords)： 干旱;干旱损失量;干旱强度;持续时间;干旱评估

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李翔宇,雷添杰,林智韬,姬军红,孙晖,吴清华,王嘉宝,陈东攀

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.S1.033

参考文献(References)：

• [1] DONG X,TANG H,ZHANG Q,et al.Transcriptomic analyses provide new insights into jujube fruit quality affected by water deficit stress[J].Scientia Horticulturae,2022,291:110558.
• [2] JI Z,SHAN H.Threshold diagnosis and hazard dangerousness evaluation for the disaster of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(10):1793-1798.
• [3] CHEN J F,ZHAO S F,SHAO Q X,et al.Risk assessment on drought disaster in China based on integrative cloud model[J].Research Journal of Applied Sciences,Engineering and Technology,2012,4(9):1137-1146.
• [4] JIA X,JIA X,LI T,et al.MdATG5a induces drought tolerance by improving the antioxidant defenses and promoting starch degradation in apple[J].Plant Science,2021,312:111052.
• [5] ZENG Z,WU W,GE Q,et al.Legacy effects of spring phenology on vegetation growth under preseason meteorological drought in the Northern Hemisphere[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2021,310:108630.
• [6] CUI A,LI J,ZHOU Q,et al.Use of a multiscalar GRACE-based standardized terrestrial water storage index for assessing global hydrological droughts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,603:126871.
• [7] ORIMOLOYE I R,BELLE J A,OLOLADE O O.Drought disaster monitoring using MODIS derived index for drought years:A space-based information for ecosystems and environmental conservation[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2021,284:112028.
• [8] JIANG M,XUE X,ZHANG L,et al.Peanut drought risk zoning in Shandong Province,China[J].Sustainability,2022,14(6):3322.
• [9] CHIANG F,MAZDIYASNI O,AGHAKOUCHAK A.Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency,duration,and intensity[J].Nature Communications,2021,12(1):2754.
• [10] HEIDARI H,ARABI M,GHANBARI M,et al.A probabilistic approach for characterization of sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships in a changing environment[J].Water,2020,12:1522.
• [11] ZHANG M,LUO D,SU Y.Drought monitoring and agricultural drought loss risk assessment based on multisource information fusion[J].Natural Hazards (Dordrecht),2022,111:775-801.
• [12] BLAUHUT V.The triple complexity of drought risk analysis and its visualisation via mapping:A review across scales and sectors[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2020,210:103345.
• [13] DING Y,GONG X,XING Z,et al.Attribution of meteorological,hydrological and agricultural drought propagation in different climatic regions of China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2021,255:106996.
• [14] JEHANZAIB M,YOO J,KWON H,et al.Reassessing the frequency and severity of meteorological drought considering non-stationarity and copula-based bivariate probability[J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,603:126948.
• [15] WANG F,LAI H,LI Y,et al.Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2022,261:107301.
• [16] NOURANI V,NAJAFI H,SHARGHI E,et al.Application of Z-numbers to monitor drought using large-scale oceanic-atmospheric parameters[J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,598:126198.
• [17] ESPINOSA-TASóN J,BERBEL J,GUTIéRREZ-MARTíN C,et al.Socioeconomic impact of 2005—2008 drought in Andalusian agriculture[J].Science of the Total Environment,2022,826:154148.
• [18] DENG L,PENG C,KIM D G,et al.Drought effects on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in global natural ecosystems[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2021,214:103501.
• [19] BARRAT H A,CLARK I M,EVANS J,et al.The impact of drought length and intensity on N cycling gene abundance,transcription and the size of an N2O hot moment from a temperate grassland soil[J].Soil Biology and Biochemistry,2022,168:108606.
• [20] ZHANG Y,LIU X,JIAO W,et al.A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2022,265:107544.
• [21] ZAMBRANO F,VRIELING A,NELSON A,et al.Prediction of drought-induced reduction of agricultural productivity in Chile from MODIS,rainfall estimates,and climate oscillation indices[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2018,219:15-30.
• [22] PERDIGóN-MORALES J,ROMERO-CENTENO R,PéREZ P O,et al.The midsummer drought in Mexico:Perspectives on duration and intensity from the CHIRPS precipitation database[J].International Journal of Climatology,2018,38(5):2174-2186.
• [23] ALI M,DEO R C,DOWNS N J,et al.An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index[J].Atmospheric Research,2018,207:155-180.
• [24] TONG S,LAI Q,ZHANG J,et al.Spatiotemporal drought variability on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980—2014 based on the SPEI-PM,intensity analysis and Hurst exponent[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,615:1557-1565.
• [25] 李辉霞，刘国华，傅伯杰.基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究[J].生态学报，2011,31(19):5495-5504.
• [26] 焦鹏华，牛健植，苗禹博，等.2001—2020年全球植被对极端气候的响应[J].应用生态学报，2024,35(11):2992-3004.
• [27] 孙根云，邵宝婕，丁孙金衍，等.基于GEE平台的黄河流域水体指数研究[J].人民黄河，2023,45(3):119-124.
• [28] 张巧凤，刘桂香，于红博，等.基于标准化降水指数的锡林郭勒盟干旱特征分析[J].自然灾害学报，2015,24(5):119-128.
• [29] WANG Y,LYU J,WANG Y,et al.Drought risk assessment of spring maize based on APSIM crop model in Liaoning province,China[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2020,45:101483.