李小涵,潘兴瑶,杨默远,杨胜利,范海燕,张志强

• 1:北京市水科学技术研究院
• 2:北京林业大学
• 3:北京市非常规水资源开发利用与节水技术工程中心

摘要(Abstract)：

北京市干旱多发,严重威胁区域粮食生产、水安全和生态安全,明确北京市干旱演变特征是应对干旱的重要措施。基于北京市境内分布较为均匀的20个气象观测站1981—2018年的逐月降水量、气温数据,采用标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、Mann-Kendall趋势分析、经验正交分解法(EOF)等方法分析北京地区近40 a年代际、年际、季节干旱时空分布特征。研究表明,近40 a北京地区干旱程度呈逐渐加重趋势,20世纪00年代干旱最严重,干旱频率区域平均值达到0.41次/年,与此同时,北京市干旱频率的空间格局由北高南低变化为南高北低。干旱的季节性差异明显,秋季发生干旱的频率最高,区域平均值为0.46,高值区在延庆、门头沟、昌平、大兴和通州区;夏季、冬季和春季的干旱频率次之,区域平均值分别为0.37、0.26和0.25。本研究探明了北京市近40 a来的干旱时空分布格局,研究结果可以为北京市旱情防控提供参考,为合理构建干旱预警评估系统提供数据和理论支持。

关键词(KeyWords)： 干旱;时空分布特征;SPEI指数;北京

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 北京市科委项目(Z171100004417005);; 国家重点研发计划“城郊高效安全节水灌溉技术典型示范”(2016YFC0403105)

作者(Author): 李小涵,潘兴瑶,杨默远,杨胜利,范海燕,张志强

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.11.006

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