单是豪,倪红珍,汪党献,陈根发

• 1:中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所
• 2:水利部水利水电规划设计总院

摘要(Abstract)：

开展农村居民水价提升空间分析可为水价改革提供依据。基于2019年我国21省区农村居民生活水费支出系数、人均可支配收入及用水指标的截面数据，将一种生活水费支出系数计量模型与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型相结合，定量估计了我国21个省区2019年、2025年、2030年及2035年农村居民水价承受能力，并进行了水价提升空间分析。结果表明，现状农村居民水价偏低，21省区平均生活水费支出系数仅为0.46%,当人均可支配收入及用水指标分别提升10%,生活水费支出将增加1.25%、6.9%;当前农村居民水价均在可承受范围内，未来5～15 a承受能力大幅提升，呈现出东北、西北和华北地区基本高于西南和华南地区的区域性规律；在不超过农村居民承受能力的情况下，从省区和地理分区视角看水价均可继续上调，相比现状水价，未来5～15 a各省区将分别出现1～3番、2～4番、3～6番的提升空间。

关键词(KeyWords)： 农村居民水价;水费支出系数;承受能力;水价提升空间;灰色预测

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 水利部“水价关键问题研究”专项课题(WR0145C412019)

作者(Author): 单是豪,倪红珍,汪党献,陈根发

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.09.008

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