李加顺,赵伟华,刘丽,周彩霞

• 1:云南省水利水电科学研究院
• 2:云南省水土流失防治与绿色发展重点实验室
• 3:长江水利委员会长江科学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】极端降水是产生洪涝灾害的首要原因之一，对农业生产有重要影响，为探讨云南省滇中地区极端降水指标的时空演变规律，【方法】利用1960—2020年滇中地区44个气象台站日降水数据，采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Sen斜率估计、连续小波分析研究了极端降水指标的年内、年际及周期性变化特征。【结果】结果显示：60年来，发现在年内1 d最大降水量(Rx1day)、5 d最大降水量(Rx5day)、降水强度(SDII)、中雨以上日数(R10)、大雨以上日数(R20)、持续湿期日数(CWD)、强降水量(R95p)和特强降水量(R99p)均呈现先增加后减小的趋势；持续干期日数(CDD)表现为先减小后增加的趋势。在年尺度上，Rx1day、SDII、R99p呈显著增加的趋势，CDD、Rx5day、R10、R20、R95p和总降水量(PRCPTOT)变化趋势不显著，CWD呈显著减小的趋势；Rx1day、Rx5day、R10、R20、R95p、R99p和PRCPTOT高值区位于滇中地区的西北部、东北部及东南部，低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部；SDII高值区位于滇中地区的西北部，低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部；CDD呈自西北向东南逐渐减小的趋势；CWD高值区位于滇中地区的西北部、东南部和中部，低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部；小波分析显示Rx1day、Rx5day、R10、R20、SDI、CDD、CWD、R95p、R99p和PRCPTOT均存在8a内的周期特性。【结论】结果表明：Mann-Kendall趋势分析对于降水要素时间序列变化趋势和突变点分析，能发挥重要的作用；Sen斜率估计针对降水要素长时间序列数据的趋势分析，起到至关重要的作用；连续小波分析能够推断出降水要素存在的周期性变化，有很大的推广应用价值。通过对滇中地区极端降水指标时空演变规律研究，可为滇中地区灌溉排水规划及防灾减灾提供参考依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 极端降水指标;Mann-Kendall趋势分析;Sen斜率估计;连续小波分析;滇中地区;气候变化;时空分布;降雨

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52009118)

作者(Author): 李加顺,赵伟华,刘丽,周彩霞

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.001

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