胡国华,马丁凯,朱旭东,马雨飞

• 1:长沙理工大学水利工程学院
• 2:宁夏水文水资源监测预警中心

摘要(Abstract)：

宁夏固原小河流域为六盘山区季节性河流,暴雨洪水涨落快,洪水预报误差较大,开展HEC-HMS模型在该流域的适用性研究,为宁夏山丘区暴雨洪水预报提供一种新途径。利用实测1987—2017年水文气象资料,依据流域DEM数据结合流域出口信息划分子流域计算单元,利用遥感影像结合GIS技术提取流域信息,选用SCS径流曲线法、 Snyder单位线法、马斯京根法进行模拟预报。结果表明:模型率定期11场洪水,洪峰相对误差在20%以内,峰现时差在1 h以内的占比为72.73%,Nash效率系数在0.7以上的占比为81.82%;模型验证期6场洪水,洪峰相对误差在20%以内,峰现时差在1 h以内,Nash效率系数在0.7以上的占比为83.33%,模型模拟效果较好,预报精度达到《水文情报预报规范》规定的乙等,可用于指导宁夏固原小河流域的山洪预报工作。

关键词(KeyWords)： HEC-HMS模型;GIS;山洪预报;宁夏山丘区

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51809018)

作者(Author): 胡国华,马丁凯,朱旭东,马雨飞

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