简志健,赵铜铁钢,黎学优,蔡华阳,段凯,王海龙,刘智勇

• 1:中山大学土木工程学院
• 2:南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】针对欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF降水原始预报存在的系统误差及随机误差，应用伯努利-伽马-高斯模型进行误差订正。【方法】以我国80个二级流域为单位评估检验模型订正效果，重点对我国珠江流域对应的二级子流域进行分析。使用排序概率技巧得分CRPSS等对订正前后预报进行评价。【结果】在预报技巧方面，经订正后珠江10个流域都得到了改善；平均而言珠江流域经订正后CRPSS提高了30,其中红柳江流域提升最大，订正后精度技巧得分提升了近80。【结论】伯努利-伽马-高斯模型能有效订正原始预报的系统偏差，提高预报的准确性；不同时期订正效果有所区别，对出现极值降水较少的偏枯期和特枯期，订正效果有更好的表现；累积降水预报订正后几乎所有流域都优于多年气候态的精度；订正的效果和相关系数大小有关，相关系数表现好的流域有更高的预测技巧得分，经订正后有利于后续水文集合预报应用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 逐日降水;次季节;集合预报;预报订正;预报检验;降水;不确定性;水文预报精度

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001000);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51979295);; 广东省珠江人才计划团队项目(2019ZT08G090)

作者(Author): 简志健,赵铜铁钢,黎学优,蔡华阳,段凯,王海龙,刘智勇

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.08.006

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