刘倩,高路,马苗苗,汪澜,林晖

• 1:福建师范大学地理研究所
• 2:福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室
• 3:福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心
• 4:中国水利水电科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

全球变暖导致的极端气候已成为人类社会可持续发展的巨大挑战,极端气候背景下小流域尺度的未来气候变化更值得关注。结合ERA-Interim再分析资料及CMIP6模式,采用QM、DT、LOCI、Delta四种方法对模式历史数据降尺度,综合RMSE、NSE、R~2三个指标选取最佳降尺度方法,对大凌河流域未来气温、降水情景进行预估。结果表明,未来流域年平均温、最高温、最低温均呈增温趋势,但不同情景增温速率不同,由大到小依次是SSP585(平均温、最高温和最低温依次为0.65℃/10 a、0.54℃/10 a、0.59℃/10 a)>SSP370(0.46℃/10 a、0.43℃/10 a、0.48℃/10 a)>SSP245(0.27℃/10 a、0.27℃/10 a、0.29℃/10 a)>SSP126(0.07℃/10 a、0.13℃/10 a、0.12℃/10 a)。未来流域气温大致由南向北降低,年平均温、最高温距平范围分别为0～2.2℃和0.2～2.4℃,且气温距平西部高于东部;最低温距平范围为-1.0～1.2℃,其中SSP126和SSP245情景距平为负,流域内呈现出降温趋势。未来流域年降水量波动剧烈,除SSP126情景年降水增长速率为负外,其他情景年降水均呈缓慢增长的趋势;年降水量自东南向西北逐渐减少,降水距平百分率向西逐渐增大。

关键词(KeyWords)： ERA-Interim再分析资料;统计降尺度;CMIP6模式;气温;降水;未来气候变化;干旱;极端天气

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0206400);; 福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项(2019R1002-3);; 福建省灾害天气重点实验室开放课题(2020KFKT01);福建省灾害天气重点实验室重大科技专项课题(2020TF06);; 上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ201910)

作者(Author): 刘倩,高路,马苗苗,汪澜,林晖

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.002

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