孔功,朱大伟,谢伊娜,李小红,张洪波,张润云

• 1:昆明理工大学电力工程学院
• 2:江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】为定量评估气候和土地利用变化对松华坝来水量的贡献，【方法】基于松华坝水源保护区建立以来的多时期气候和土地利用数据，采用气候倾向率和MK趋势检验方法分析气候变化趋势，利用GIS空间叠加工具分析土地利用时空变化特征，并结合SWAT模型模拟流域水文过程，分析气候和土地利用变化对水库来水量的影响。【结果】结果表明：1980—2014年间气温以0.586℃/10 a的速率上升，降水以12.5 mm/10 a的速率减少。耕地、林地、灌木和草地为研究区主要的土地利用类型，1980—2010年间耕地面积增长，林地略有退化，该变化使得来水量增加。【结论】气候变化是导致水库来水量变化的主要原因，历史变化情景下秋季来水量变化最为敏感。气温和降水变化对来水量的共同作用和单独作用都不呈线性关系。气温升高1℃情景下，月均来水量减少63.6万m~3;降水增加10%情景下，月均来水量增加423.4万m~3。

关键词(KeyWords)： 气候变化;土地利用变化;SWAT模型;水库来水量;松华坝流域

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 水灾害防御全国重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2022490411);; 云南省自然科学基金项目(2023Y0410);; 长江下游洪涝灾害集成调控与应急除险技术装备国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000100)

作者(Author): 孔功,朱大伟,谢伊娜,李小红,张洪波,张润云

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.012

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