崔文兵,侯国博,陈万基,赵阳,崔东

• 1:伊犁师范大学资源与生态研究所
• 2:新疆伊犁河谷资源植物保护与利用重点实验室
• 3:伊犁师范大学生物与地理科学学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】为探索人地协调城镇发展模式，解决绿洲重点经济建设区人地矛盾问题，模拟未来土地利用发展状况尤为重要。【方法】基于土地利用转移矩阵和PLUS(Patch-generating land use simulation, PLUS)模型对2000—2020年期间的伊犁河谷土地利用变化及其驱动因子进行分析，并设置多种发展情景进行模拟。【结果】结果显示：(1)2000—2020年伊犁河谷土地利用变化明显，其中草地退化严重，不透水面扩张显著，人地矛盾激烈。(2)各地类变化主要驱动因子差异明显，少数地类单因子主导驱动明显，大部分地类多因子复合驱动作用明显。(3)从3种情景模拟结果来看，自然情景以农田和未利用地增加为主，其次不透水面扩张明显；经济发展情景是通过增加不透水面扩张面积来达到最佳经济效益；生态保护情景下草地退化和未利用地扩张得到控制，湿地区域保护加强，实现生态效益显著提升。【结论】对土地利用驱动因子分析，要侧重多因子复合驱动作用的影响。PLUS模型对伊犁河谷土地利用变化模拟适用性较好，多情景模拟土地利用景观格局未来发展，可为伊犁河谷及地理环境相似的绿洲解决人地矛盾，发展人地协调模式提供理论指导与参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 伊犁河谷;土地利用变化;PLUS模型;多情景模拟;人地关系;人地协调模式;生态保护;人类活动

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(32260272);; 伊犁师范大学高级别培育项目(YSPY202209);伊犁师范大学“学实高层次人才岗位”项目(YSXSGG22001)

作者(Author): 崔文兵,侯国博,陈万基,赵阳,崔东

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.09.001

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