郝增超,侯爱中,张璇,武新英,郝芳华

• 1:北京师范大学水科学研究院
• 2:水利部水文水资源监测预报中心

摘要(Abstract)：

我国干旱灾害频发,严重威胁国家粮食安全、水安全和生态安全,准确的干旱监测和预报是应对干旱的重要非工程措施。以干旱监测和预报技术为重点,综述了近年来的研究进展与发展方向。首先从单变量和综合干旱指标、数据获取方式两个方面梳理了干旱监测技术的主要进展;其次从干旱发生机理、统计学预报、动力学预报、混合预报、集合预报方面系统总结了干旱预报技术的主要进展;最后对未来干旱监测和预报研究进行了展望。总体上,干旱监测的主要进展集中于基于多源数据的综合干旱指标研究,干旱预报的主要进展集中于基于气候系统模式的动力学预报,同时统计学-动力学混合预报及集合预报发展迅速。未来需要在发展有效干旱指标、改进干旱预报模型、加强变化环境下干旱监测和预报等方面深入研究,提高复杂干旱情势监测预报的精度。

关键词(KeyWords)： 干旱指数;干旱监测;干旱预报;降水;气候变化;遥感;人类活动

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41601014);; 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07302004);; 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407701)

作者(Author): 郝增超,侯爱中,张璇,武新英,郝芳华

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2020.11.004

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