邹贤菊,宋晓猛,刘翠善,张春桦

• 1:中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院
• 2:南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

科学认识降水时空演变特征对区域防洪减灾及水资源管理具有重要科学意义。利用珠江三角洲地区58个气象站点1961—2017年日降水资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验和空间地统计分析方法,探讨珠三角地区前、后汛期不同等级降水特征(降水量、降水日数及降水强度)时空演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)50多年来,珠三角地区前、后汛期降水量和降水强度均呈增加趋势,而降水日数则呈减少趋势;(2)除大暴雨外,前、后汛期各等级降水特征时间变化趋势相同,但存在明显的空间分布差异,珠江口附近、西南沿海及北部近山区是降水变化的敏感区;(3)前、后汛期降水事件均以小雨为主(占比>60%),而降水量主要来源于大雨事件(占比分别为28.7%和27.1%),但暴雨(5.6%和4.6%的降水日数贡献,25%和22.2%的降水量贡献)与大暴雨(1.3%和1.3%的降水日数贡献,12.6%和12.6%的降水量贡献)的相对贡献更为明显;(4)前、后汛期降水量的增加由大雨和暴雨降水量增加引起,降水日数减少是由于小雨降水日数减少,降水强度的增加来源于大暴雨以下等级降水强度增加。

关键词(KeyWords)： 珠江三角洲地区;汛期;降水等级;时空演变

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502701);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51979271,51609242);; 中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M632333)

作者(Author): 邹贤菊,宋晓猛,刘翠善,张春桦

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.06.003

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