雷静,汪伟,傅巧萍

• 1:长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

针对长江流域水资源开发利用的径流累积影响效应问题,同时为了定量预测长江流域未来径流演变特征,以大通水文站为代表站,建立了长江流域控制性水库群和跨流域调水工程联合配置调度模型,对2035年大通断面径流过程进行了模拟预测,分析预测了长江流域水资源开发利用的径流累积影响。结果表明,到2035年,随着南水北调等跨流域引调水工程、长江上游梯级水库群的逐步建设以及流域内新增耗水的影响,大通断面年均径流量相比天然将减小了679亿m~3,总体上表现出枯季流量增加、汛期流量减少的趋势。同时,以三峡为核心的长江上游梯级水库群通过蓄丰补枯的调度,显著改善了枯季以及特枯年份大通断面的来水条件,大通旬均流量小于10 000 m~3/s的旬个数相比天然减少了82个,减小时段主要在咸潮易发的1—4月,为应对咸潮入侵、保障长江口供水安全创造了工程条件。

关键词(KeyWords)： 长江;累积影响;水库调度;跨流域引调水;径流;人类活动;长江口

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划“区域水平衡与国家水网优化布局研究”(2021YFC3200202)

作者(Author): 雷静,汪伟,傅巧萍

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.12.003

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