张茵,王婷,游进军,任政

• 1:河北工程大学水利水电学院
• 2:河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室
• 3:中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】针对全国社会经济发展布局与水资源承载力不相匹配，导致资源与经济的协调发展受到约束等问题，以优化全国社会经济的适水发展布局为目标，剖析31个省级行政区现状水资源与社会经济发展水平的协调程度。【方法】通过构建水资源-社会经济复合系统耦合协调评价指标体系，建立耦合协调度模型，从时间、空间两个维度探究全国水资源与社会经济耦合协调发展关系的时空演变规律，并借助障碍度函数进一步分析影响二者耦合协调发展的主要障碍因子。【结果】结果表明：2010—2020年，全国水资源与社会经济的耦合协调发展水平呈上升趋势，耦合协调度值由2010年的0.11提高到2020年的0.69;各省的耦合协调发展水平总体也呈上升趋势，31省耦合协调度的数值范围由2010年的0.10～0.42提高到2020年的0.46～0.69,且变化趋势表现为3种类型：26省为“上升型”,福建、西藏、浙江3省为“平稳型”,青海和海南2省为“波动型”。【结论】2020年，19省达到协调发展水平，12省仍处于过渡阶段且均为社会经济过快发展型地区；主要障碍因子有人均水资源量、人均综合用水量与人均GDP等，各省之间存在地区差异。以湖北省为例，分析新冠疫情前后(2019—2020年)水资源与社会经济耦合协调趋势发生突变的原因，表明分析结果与实际情况基本相符。研究成果可为优化全国层面社会经济发展布局、促进水资源空间均衡提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 水资源;社会经济;耦合协调度;时空演变;障碍度;水资源承载能力;水资源优化配置;水资源空间均衡

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52079143);; 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407705);; 河北省重点研发计划项目(21374201D);; 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(lWHR-SKL-202215)

作者(Author): 张茵,王婷,游进军,任政

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.01.006

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