杨思茹,杨洋央,方佳毅,莫芷慧,朱思颖,张峰,胡潭高

• 1:杭州师范大学遥感与地球科学研究院
• 2:全省湿地智慧监测与生态修复重点实验室
• 3:自然资源部第二海洋研究所
• 4:浙江大学海洋学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】全球海平面上升破坏了沿海观测水位的平稳性假设，导致沿海极值水位重现期和重现水平发生巨变。因此，需要在非平稳性假设下分析海平面上升对极值水位的影响，为沿海地区海岸防护工程设计提供科学参考。【方法】以浙江温台沿海的验潮站为例，通过趋势分析，检验验证温州、瑞安、坎门三个验潮站观测数据的非平稳性；构建广义极值分布(GEV)和广义帕累托分布(GPD)非平稳模型，以时间协变量表征参数时变特征，利用贝叶斯框架下的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法估计参数后验分布；通过赤池信息量准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息量准则(BIC)评估模型性能，并结合有效重现水平(ERL)和预期等待时间(EWT)分析非平稳条件下的致灾风险。【结果】结果表明：浙江沿海的三个验潮站数据具有明显的趋势性，因此选用非平稳极值理论模型更为合理；GPD模型在拟合优度上优于GEV模型；非平稳条件下，百年一遇极值水位重现期显著缩短。【结论】GPD模型因对尾部高频极值的敏感性，更适合非平稳条件下的风险预测。模型阈值的选取会影响极值水位的预估结果。在海平面上升条件下，沿海地区面临的洪水灾害风险的频率和强度将显著增大，建议动态调整沿海工程防洪标准。研究成果为非平稳极值理论在气候变化的应用以及海防工程设计提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 极值理论;重现期;非平稳性;重现水平;极值水位;气候变化;洪水

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(42001096)

作者(Author): 杨思茹,杨洋央,方佳毅,莫芷慧,朱思颖,张峰,胡潭高

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.02.007

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